NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — A brief return to active weather is ahead with a risk of severe thunderstorms in our region from late Thursday evening through early Saturday morning.
Starting Thursday evening until 7 a.m. Friday, a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of strong storms is in effect for southwest Southern Kentucky and far northwest Middle Tennessee. On Friday, the entire News 2 viewing area is under a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of strong storms.
This is not a significant severe risk, but combining with increased humidity and moisture, an approaching cold front, and warm/unstable air, a few strong storms are possible. The primary risk is gusty winds, but heavy rain, hail are possible. The tornado risk is extremely low at this time.
Gulf moisture is returning into our region over the next 24 hours. By Thursday, dew points rise into the upper 60s to lower/middle 70s. This will prime the atmosphere and set the stage for storms as early as Thursday evening.
Storm timing
For Thursday, very little storms are expected until after 4 p.m. Therefore, expect hot and humid conditions. High temperatures Thursday to the lower and middle 90s, and feeling like near and above 100°.
Late afternoon into the evening, the latest HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model shows storm development into the evening, mostly along and north of I-40. This will be the case into early Friday morning with a south movement of the rain possible.
Friday, expect rain and storms likely in the first half of the day, then more develop in the afternoon to early evening.
A break in the rain Friday evening, but more could occur into Saturday morning. Latest model trends has the rain ending by the mid-afternoon, and currently trending dry for the Tennessee Titans second pre-season game versus the Seattle Seahawks. This will be accompanied with a cold front to lower the rain chance and bring slightly less humid air to our region into next week.
Rain amounts do not appear to be very high, mostly less than 1" on average. We'll continue to watch this forecast carefully.
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