NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — You may have noticed that this fall hasn't felt very fall-like. Other than a short stretch of frosty weather mid-month, temperatures have been in the 80s for much of October.
So far, 21 out of the 29 days in October have featured above-average high temperatures, and 14 days have been in the 80s or higher.
In Nashville, the average last day with a high temperature reaching the 80s is October 22.
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This year we have been in the 80s for most of the days since the 22nd and the forecast is for temperatures to continue reaching the 80s for the beginning of November. Click here for your latest 7-day forecast.
Forecast models are showing temperatures in the 80s as late as November 10. If we hit 80° on the 10th, that would be the 7th latest on record. The latest 80° day on record is November 19, 1942.
According to Ryan Husted, the warning coordination meteorologist at the National Weather Service Nashville, this fall's warm temperatures are partially caused by the extremely dry weather.
"We've had a stagnant weather pattern, we've had a high-pressure ridge sitting right over us which keeps us dry, it keeps us warm, and it keeps us precipitation-free for the most part. We have increasing drought conditions, which when it's dry at the surface it's easier for things to warm up," said Husted.
Dry and sunny weather allows for higher afternoon temperatures and this is why we recorded so many days in the 80s.
Below is an example of the difference between a dry day with sunshine and a humid day with clouds and rain.
Husted said the warm weather could be partially influenced by the warmer climate, but we won't know that until years from now.
"We attribute anything to climate change well after the fact, so now that we're currently in the event we're focused on the developing drought conditions across Middle Tennessee and really all of Tennessee. Since Helene, we have been dry so that's our focus at the weather service right now." Husted told News 2.
Nashville's weather data goes back almost 150 years, and the majority of the warm fall temperatures have occurred in recent years.
Out of the 15 latest fall days in the 80s, nine of them have occurred since 2000.
It's not just the fall time temperatures that are increasing, the entire year is getting warmer.
Out of the 15 hottest years in Nashville, 11 of them have occurred since 2000. And four of the five hottest years ever have occurred since 2015.
If this trend continues, temperatures reaching the 80s in November might become a regular occurrence.
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