Middle TN Halloween forecast: Rain, storms likely

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — One of the biggest candy days of the year is Halloween, and the weather may provide some duds for trick-or-treat plans this year. News 2 meteorologists are following the potential of rain and storms, some that could become strong or severe on Thursday.

In recent model runs, the forecast for rain on Halloween has underwent a shift in timing. Regardless and unfortunately, we still expect rain and storms to impact many parts of Middle Tennessee and Southern Kentucky on Thursday afternoon and night.

There is also a small severe weather component we will be monitoring, too. The Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe storms for areas from the Tennessee River to north and west of Clarksville. This risk could expand farther east.

While the lowest threat level, wind gusts and brief heavy rainfall is possible in the stronger storms.

Ahead of the storms, gradient wind gusts could reach 30-40 mph on Thursday. While no alerts for wind will be issued, this can cause loose items to blow away. Be sure to secure decorations and any outdoor items that can easily be tossed in the wind.

Back to the storm chance, let's look at Future Tracker. This is our in-house model showing the onset of rain and storms approaching the Tennessee River around midday Thursday into the early afternoon. In this region is where the Marginal Risk is currently located, and storms could contain gusty winds. The storms show a brief weakening trend, but flare back up for the afternoon & evening commute near the I-65 corridor, before decreasing to general rain farther east into the evening.

While this timing seems plausible, the new model data has shown a delay in the timing that is above. For instance, below is the European model. This indicates a few showers and storms through the late afternoon and early evening, and then a later arrival of the widespread to central Middle Tennessee, with rain lingering longer into Friday morning.

The time delay will be ironed out in the next 24 hours, so stay tuned for updates. One thing is for certain, temperatures will cool off a lot on Friday to the 60s and low 70s, then warm back up this weekend into the 70s and 80s.

Stay tuned for more updates.