NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — Through the end of the week, there will be a daily chance of strong to severe storms. The unseasonably warm air in our area (temperatures in the 80s) will aid our storm risk in the coming days.
After another warm day on Tuesday, we are anticipating storms developing Tuesday night into early Wednesday, especially north and west of Clarksville as a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) is in effect for that area.
On Wednesday, all of Middle TN is under a Marginal Risk, but it appears the storms should move out by late morning. A few more storms are possible in the afternoon, but it doesn't look very likely.
Then on Thursday, a widespread risk of severe weather is possible. All of our area is in the Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5), but far northwest locations (including Benton, Carroll, Henry, Houston, Humphreys, Montgomery counties in Tennessee, and Christian, Muhlenberg, Todd, and Trigg counties in Kentucky) are under the Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5).
More robust storms are likely late day and evening on Thursday through early Friday with a cold front.
When looking at the ingredients for severe weather, the storms that could impact our area on Wednesday lack a trigger (cold front, upper-air support), but have the available moisture, instability, and wind shear.
However, on Thursday the trigger will be an approaching cold front. That combined with very unstable air, Gulf moisture, and decent wind shear will all lead to multiple storms with some turning strong to severe.
Over the next few days, the overall severe threat will be strong gusty winds. Pockets of heavy rain will be likely through Friday morning. The hail and tornado threats are low but not zero.
Future Tracker
Let's look at the two potential rounds of strong storms. The first round move in after midnight tonight into Wednesday morning. It does look to weaken as it pushes east. It moves out by mid-morning, and the rest of the afternoon looks dry.
Keep an eye on the radar at wkrn.com/radar
Round two arrives Thursday evening into early Friday with a cold front. Temperatures rise to the lower 80s. This combined with all severe weather ingredients, severe storms are possible. This is why our entire area is under a Marginal to Slight Risk. Storms will increase and continue into Friday morning as the cold front moves through.
Temperatures cool down for the weekend with additional rain possible on Sunday. Next week, highs in the 60s to near 70, but chilly mornings in the 40s.
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