Severe weather, significant heavy rain threat later this week

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — There are more rain and severe storm chances this week. This time, the storms will also feature a major risk of flooding and heavy rainfall. Considerable flooding is likely in parts of our region through the weekend.

Middle Tennessee Severe Outlook

Each day from Wednesday through Saturday will have a risk of severe weather. At this time, the biggest threat day is late Wednesday evening through Thursday morning, where an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for our far northwest counties is in effect. A Slight Risk (2/5) and Marginal Risk (1/5) is in effect for areas mostly east of I-65. On Thursday, more severe storms possible. Most of our area is under a Slight Risk (level 2/5), with far southeast areas in a Marginal Risk (1/5).

The severe weather risk continues Friday & Saturday. Parts of our area is under a Slight Risk (level 2/5).

At this time, areas west of Interstate 65 and north of Interstate 40 may have the highest potential to see any severe storms as the front stalls out on Wednesday night into Thursday. However, storms will be possible through Saturday. This means all threats will be possible, especially damaging wind gusts and heavy rain.

Heavy rainfall

While the severe weather risk is a big concern after the last several weather events, a stalled front will bring heavy rain and potential major flood risk for parts of Middle Tennessee and Southern Kentucky.

There is a Flood Watch up for most of Middle TN and Southern Kentucky from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday morning. Up to 1 foot of rain can be expected, leading to life threatening flash flooding.

The Weather Prediction Center is highlighting our west/northwest counties for a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) for excessive rainfall to bring flooding. But, the risk of excessive rainfall is for all of the area through Sunday morning.

The rain amounts could be extreme to catastrophic in the northwestern half of the WKRN viewing area. Future Rain Tracker showing greater than 6-inch amounts, with some areas over 12 inches! This is due to a stalled front (shown later with Future Tracker) that will allow rain to train over the same area multiple times.

Future Tracker

With the heavy rain and severe storm risk, let's look closer at where the threats will likely occur.

First, on Wednesday, it's a dry daytime period as high temperatures peak into the lower and middle 80s! Wednesday night, storms increase for our western/northwestern counties as a cold front becomes stationary in the northwest areas. This is where severe weather will be possible, but also where heavy rain could lead to some flooding concerns.

On Thursday, thanks to the stalled out front setting up in our region, severe storms and flooding will redevelop again with the heating of the day. Heavy rain will set up along this front, increasing the rain totals.

This will be the trend again on Friday and Saturday until the front pushes all the way through our region. Until that front clears us, the rain totals will go up and lead to flooding problems for creeks, streams, and rivers.

Please stay alert to our forecast and setup for where the heaviest rain will fall.