NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WKRN) — Severe storms move back in Wednesday night and continue through early Sunday. The severe threat for Wednesday night is significant, as long-track storms capable of producing tornadoes are likely. While there will be a daily severe storm threat, the concern over the coming days will be a major risk of flooding and heavy rainfall. Considerable flooding is likely in parts of our region through the weekend.
Middle Tennessee Severe Outlook
There is a risk of severe weather each day from Wednesday through Saturday. At this time, the biggest threat day is late Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has added a High Risk (Level 5/5) for far northwest counties (Carroll County and Henry County in Middle TN, and Trigg County in Southern KY). A Moderate Risk (level 4/5) is in effect for our west counties along/west of Interstate 65. An Enhanced Risk (3/5), Slight Risk (2/5) and Marginal Risk (1/5) are in effect for areas mostly south of Interstate 40 and east of I-65. All modes of severe weather are possible, including damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes. Tornadoes could be strong, especially around Clarksville and areas west/northwest.
On Wednesday, it's a dry daytime period as high temperatures peak into the lower and middle 80s. The wind will be intense during the day, thus a Wind Advisory is in effect from midday Wednesday to early Thursday morning. Gusts 40-45 mph from the south are likely. Storms start around dinner time and continue into Thursday morning.
More severe storms are possible on Thursday. Most of our area is under a Slight Risk (level 2/5), with far southeast areas in a Marginal Risk (1/5). All modes of severe weather are possible, including damaging winds, hail, tornadoes and flooding rains.
The severe weather risk continues Friday and Saturday. Parts of our area are under a Slight Risk (Level 2/5).
Heavy rainfall
While the severe weather risk is a big concern after the last several weather events, a stalled front will bring heavy rain and potentially a major flood risk for parts of Middle Tennessee and Southern Kentucky.
There is a Flood Watch up for most of Middle Tennessee and Southern Kentucky from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday morning. Up to 1 foot of rain can be expected, leading to life-threatening flash flooding.
The Weather Prediction Center is highlighting our west/northwest counties for a Moderate Risk (Level 3/4) to High Risk (Level 4/4) for excessive rainfall to bring flooding. But, the risk of excessive rainfall is for all of the area through Sunday morning.
The rain amounts could be extreme to catastrophic in the northwestern half of the WKRN viewing area. Future Rain Tracker showing greater than 6-inch amounts, with some areas over 12 inches! This is due to a stalled front (shown later with Future Tracker) that will allow rain to train over the same area multiple times.
Future Tracker
On Thursday, thanks to the stalled out front setting up in our region, severe storms and flooding will redevelop again with the heating of the day. Heavy rain will set up along this front, increasing the rain totals.
This will be the trend again on Friday and Saturday until the front pushes all the way through our region. Until that front clears us, the rain totals will go up and lead to flooding problems for creeks, streams and rivers.
Please stay alert to our forecast and setup for where the heaviest rain will fall.
Don’t forget to take the power and reliability of the WKRN Weather Authority with you at all times by downloading the News 2 Storm Tracker app.